When the Cincinnati Reds and the New York Yankees squared off in the just-completed three-game sweep by the Reds at Yankee Stadium, it brought together two of the best reasons to watch Major League Baseball these days ÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥” Cincinnati speedster Elly De La Cruz and New York slugger Aaron Judge.
When theyÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥™re in the game, itÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥™s hard to keep your eyes off them.
A reed-thin 6-foot-5 switch-hitter, De La Cruz, 22, is a young and enormously talented shortstop who leads the major leagues in what was once feared to be a lost art ÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥” the stolen base. With 42 steals through the RedsÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥™ first 87 games, De La Cruz is on pace for 78 stolen bases, which would be the most in MLB since Marquis Grissom had that many in 1992. De La Cruz is also a rare power/speed threat with 15 home runs. His futureÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥™s so bright, heÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥™s gotta wear braids.
A 6-foot-7, 282-pound behemoth, Judge, 32, is putting together the kind of offensive numbers not seen since (allegedly) steroid-fueled Barry Bonds was making a mockery of the game 20 years ago. Judge, just two years removed from his record-setting 62-home run season, has 32 home runs and 83 RBIs through 88 games this year and is on pace for 58 homers and 151 ribbies. His .314 batting average allows him to entertain thoughts of a Triple Crown ÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥” leading the league in all three categories.
Judge and De La Cruz also specialize in another statistic, this one not as admirable ÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥” the strikeout. De La Cruz, with an MLB-leading 115 strikeouts so far, is on pace for ÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥” look away, old-school Reds fans ÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥” 214 KÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥™s in 2024. Judge is on pace for 173 whiffs.
Like it or not, strikeouts are a huge part of the game these days. Whiffs are at an all-time high. In this decade, one in every four at-bats has ended with strike three.
We shouldnÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥™t be surprised, though. A hundred years ago, batters struck out once in every 11 at-bats, and the strikeout percentage has been on a steady upswing ever since. Increased strikeout numbers follow a trend that essentially covers MLBÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥™s history.
But despite that steady increase in KÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥™s, Reggie Jackson ÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥” a player whose career began in 1967 and ended in 1987 ÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥” still holds the career record for strikeouts with 2,597. Jackson has been atop that list since 1982, 42 years.
Well, records are made to be broken, and, given the steady trend of increased strikeouts, it seems inevitable that ReggieÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥™s record will be taken down.
The question, of course, is who will break it? Judge and De La Cruz would have to be considered two leading candidates.
The first thing to consider is that the future strikeout king will have a long career, and that heÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥™ll most likely be an outstanding player. Take a look at the last four players to hold the career strikeout record:
When Jackson struck out for the 1,913th time in 1982, he broke the record held by Willie Stargell.
When Stargell struck out for the 1,711th time in 1978, he broke the record held by Mickey Mantle.
And when Mantle struck out for the 1,331st time in 1964, he broke the record held by Babe Ruth.
What do those four players have in common? TheyÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥™re all first-ballot Hall of Famers with long, fruitful careers.
The current active player with the most career strikeouts is Giancarlo Stanton, who has fanned 1,910 times in his 15-year career. That leaves him 687 strikeouts shy of JacksonÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥™s record. Stanton, 34, is signed by the Yankees through the 2027 season, and his career strikeout percentage ÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥” strikeouts divided by at-bats ÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥” is .325, or almost one whiff per three at-bats.
(For comparison, JacksonÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥™s strikeout percentage was .263, StargellÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥™s was .244, MantleÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥™s was .211 and RuthÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥™s was .158. Those percentages reflect the historical trend mentioned earlier.)
If Stanton stays healthy ÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥” unlikely, given his recent injury history and advancing age ÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥” and plays beyond his current contract, heÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥™s got a chance to eclipse JacksonÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥™s 2,597 strikeouts. HeÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥™s on the injured list again, he can barely run, heÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥™s limited to designated hitter and his value has plummeted. I donÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥™t see him playing much past his current contract, so I doubt heÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥™ll last long enough to move to the top of the strikeout list.
Others Hall of Fame types among the active leaders in career strikeouts ÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥” Paul Goldschmidt (1,809), Freddie Freeman (1,591), Mike Trout (1,485), Bryce Harper (1,467) ÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥” also seem unlikely to usurp Jackson, for various reasons.
Judge, who has 1,133 career strikeouts, ranks 27th on the active list, but he seems to have time to catch up to Jackson. He has seven years left on a Yankees contract that runs through 2031, and his strikeout percentage (.341) indicates heÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥™s got a lot of whiffs left in him, especially as he ages.
Judge got a late start, though, not playing regularly until his age-25 season. With 1,129 career whiffs, heÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥™d need good health and a few 200-strikeout seasons to catch Jackson. Not out of the question.
But I think the record, if it is to be broken, will one day belong to De La Cruz. HeÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥™s young, athletic, exciting and has a marvelous and hopefully long career ahead of him.
And heÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥™s going to strike out a lot. De La CruzÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥™s strikeout percentage since ascending to the big leagues last year at age 21 is .363. We canÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥™t foresee what changes MLB might go through in the next 20 years ÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥” changes in rules or strategic philosophies ÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥” but if the historical trend continues, donÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥™t expect strikeout rates to reverse themselves and start to decline.
IÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥™m not a betting man ÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥” gamblingÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥™s one of the few vices IÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥™ve been able to avoid ÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥” but if I were, IÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥™d put my money on De La Cruz to replace Mr. October at the top of the career strikeout list.
And just think, we here in Reds Country will be able to watch most of those strikeouts ÃÛÁÄÖ±²¥” until 2030, when De La Cruz becomes a free agent and signs with the Yankees.
